Essays

Credit: Simone Perolari

“Agathe was a great hit with everyone. Inspiring, insightful, provocative and concise. A rare combination.”

Leading multinational organisation

Please check my contact page for media requests and speaking engagements, as well as my ECFR biography for media mentions.

2025

Foreign Policy
Did Trump Just Lift Sanctions on Iranian Oil? (June 2025)
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Carnegie Europe
How the EU Can Think Creatively for Sanctions on Russia (June 2025)
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Foreign Policy
Trump is Hitting Green Energy Hard (June 2025)
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Politico
Europe should shrug off Trump’s tariff threats (May 2025)
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Foreign Policy
The U.S. Economy Is Now Trump Enterprises (May 2025)
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Foreign Policy
Why a Pact to Weaken the Dollar Makes No Sense (May 2025)
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Le Monde
L’Union européenne dispose de leviers uniques vis-à-vis de la Russie dans le domaine financier (April 2025)
Lire la tribune

Foreign Policy
Trump Can’t Force a Global Decoupling from China (April 2025)
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ECFR
No brain, no brawn: Trump 2.0 makes an EU Economic Security Network essential (March 2025, co-authored with Abraham Newman)
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Foreign Policy
What Europe Can Do if Trump Drops Russia Sanctions (March 2025)
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Politico
Why Putin is finally negotiating (February 2025)
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Foreign Policy
Note to Europe: Stay calm and don’t retaliate against US tariffs (February 2025)
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CERI / Sciences Po
Regards sur l’Eurasie. L’année politique 2024/Les Etudes du CERI (February 2025)
Le contournement des sanctions par la Russie: mythes et réalités
Lire l’article

Foreign Policy
Three Years On, What’s Next for Europe and Ukraine? (February 2025)
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World Economic Forum
Open but secure: Europe’s path to strategic interdependence
Europe in the global economy: driving growth through innovation and and trade partnerships (January 2025)
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Foreign Policy
Why are Western companies still financing Putin’s war? (January 2025)
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ECFR
Learning from shipwrecked sailors: Three ways Europeans can weather the Trump storm (January 2025)
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Foreign Policy
From Musk to Gaza: Issues We’re Watching in 2025 (January 2025)
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2024

Foreign Policy
Will Europe fragment under Trump 2.0? (December 2024)
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ECFR
The purpose of sanctions: Why Europe and America should begin lifting measures on Syria (December 2024)
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Foreign Affairs
Europe must unlock its geoeconomic power (November 2024)
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Foreign Policy
Russia’s Plans to Replace the Dollar Are Going Nowhere (November 2024)
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ECFR
Divided we stand: The EU votes on Chinese EV tariffs (October 2024)
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Foreign Policy
Russia Can’t Keep Spending Like This for Long (October 2024)
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ECFR
Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario (September 2024)
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Foreign Policy
Why Europe Is Losing the Tech Race (September 2024)
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Foreign Policy
China Should Worry About Europe if It Attacks Taiwan (September 2024)
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Foreign Policy
The Winners from U.S.-China Decoupling (July 2024)
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Politico
Export controls on Russia might be working better than you think (June 2024)
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ECFR
It just makes cents: Why the EU needs to step up its geoeconomics game (June 2024)
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Foreign Policy
Biden’s New Tariffs Should Raise Alarm Bells in Beijing (May 2024)
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ECFR
The EU’s sanctions odyssey: Understanding the proposed restrictions on Russian LNG and helium (May 2024)
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Foreign Policy
Gazprom’s Declining Fortunes Spell Trouble for Moscow (May 2024)
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Financial Times
The China-Russia trade friendship may not be quite what you think (April 2024)
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Foreign Policy
Forget About Chips—China Is Coming for Ships (April 2024)
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Heinrich Boll Stiftung
Why US export controls on clean tech would backfire (March 2024)
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ECFR
Forget about Trump: Why Europeans should start worrying about trade tensions with emerging economies (March 2024)
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Foreign Policy
Claims That Sanctions Hurt Europe More Than Russia Are Wrong (March 2024)
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Foreign Policy
Two Years On, What’s Next in Ukraine? (February 2024)
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CERI / Sciences Po
Regards sur l’Eurasie. L’année politique 2023/Les Etudes du CERI (February 2024)
L’économie russe : impact des sanctions et perspectives de long terme
Lire l’article

Foreign Policy
Why China Is Rooting for Trump (February 2024)
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Foreign Policy
The West did not invent decoupling—China did (February 2024)
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ECFR
The bigger picture: The case for an EU-Mercosur free trade deal (January 2024)
Read the commentary / Lire l’article / Leer el artículo

Foreign Policy
5 issues to watch in 2024 (January 2024)
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2023

Foreign Policy
The Unintended Consequences of Seizing Russian Assets (November 2023)
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Le Grand Continent
Une puissance stochastique : l’empire souterrain des États-Unis, une conversation avec Henry Farrell et Abraham Newman (November 2023)
Lire l’entretien / Leer la conversación / Leggere la conversazione

Foreign Policy
Don’t Expect Much From Biden and Xi (November 2023)
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ECFR
What the EU list of critical technologies tells us about its de-risking plans (October 2023)
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Foreign Policy
The Easiest Way to Make Russia Sanctions More Effective (October 2023)
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ECFR
Economics front and centre: Why the US-EU summit matters (October 2023)
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Foreign Policy
How Russia Evaded the Oil Price Cap (October 2023)
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Foreign Policy
Why Europe Will Struggle to ‘De-Risk’ From China (September 2023)
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Foreign Policy
What Does ‘De-Risking’ Actually Mean? (August 2023)
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La Grande Conversation
A quoi servent les sanctions contre la Russie ? (July 2023)
Lire l’analyse

Foreign Policy
China’s Threat to Ban Critical Minerals Exports Is a Bluff (July 2023)
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Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
How Climate Change Will Reshape Economic Statecraft (June 2023)
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Foreign Policy
Aid Is the Next Battleground Between China and the West (June 2023)
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Le Grand Continent
Les nouvelles armes de la Russie / Las nuevas armas de Rusia (May 2023)
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Foreign Policy
No, Russia Is Not Massively Skirting Sanctions (May 2023)
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Foreign Affairs
Why China Hasn’t Come to Russia’s Rescue (April 2023)
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Foreign Policy
Don’t Trust Russia’s Numbers (March 2023)
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World Politics Review
Sanctions on Russia Are a Long Game, Not a Quick Fix (February 2023)
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Foreign Policy
Russia Sanctions: 10 Lessons and Questions for What Comes Next (February 2023)
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Le Grand Continent
10 points sur les sanctions / 10 puntos sobre las sanciones (January 2023)
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2022

Foreign Affairs
The End of the Age of Sanctions? (December 2022)
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Foreign Policy
Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why (December 2022)
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Politico
Russia will lose the energy war Putin started (November 2022)
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The Journal of Democracy
Why Sanctions Don’t Work Against Dictatorships (November 2022)
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H-Diplo
Commentary Series on Putin’s War – Demarais, “Sanctions are Not Keeping Putin Awake at Night. Export Controls Are.” (October 2022)
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2021 and earlier

The Times
We’re overlooking threat of countries linking to avoid sanctions (June 2021)
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Politico
Why Erdoğan’s attacks on France will backfire (October 2020)
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City-AM
Covid-19 creates a perfect storm for debt crises (March 2020)
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